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SilverBlitzenAG · 03-07-2025, 05:08 PM

As we approach the final week of Season 81, I believe it is time to take a look at how the Walleye are shaping up for the playoffs. Currently sitting in 9th in the SMJHL and 5th in the Northern Conference, the season hasn't exactly gone how preseason predicted it might.

Thunder Bay finished the preseason at a comfortable 5-2 record, good enough for 5th overall in the league and 3rd in the Northern Conference. With a win percentage of 71.4%, this predicted Thunder Bay to finish the 66-game regular season with a record of 47-19. Sitting with 19 losses going into the last week of simulations, Thunder Bay could still reach the 47-19 prediction by winning out, but such a possibility is statistically improbable.

With the preseason remarks and predictions out of the way, let us talk path to the playoffs. Assuming the season ended today, that would put Thunder Bay in the 5th seed of the Northern Conference. As the 5th seed, Thunder Bay's opponent would most likely be the currently 4th seed Vancouver Whalers, against whom the Walleye have a record of 1-3-1 across 5 meetings, with 1 more meeting next week. With a win percentage of just 25%, it puts a huge damper on the chances for the Walleye. Every game against the Whalers has gone 1 of 2 ways: a blowout win for Vancouver or a close game down to the wire. It's felt like no matter what Thunder Bay has done this year, Vancouver is always one skate ahead.

However, despite a rocky record, the playoffs shed the regular season and become a magical time all their own. Past records mean nothing in a best-of-7, and the team that plays the best and snatches up 4 wins first gets to keep their season alive. If the regular season record was to indicate the playoff round between Thunder Bay and Vancouver, then it would be a quick and unfortunate 1-4 defeat for Thunder Bay. If the Walleye managed to upset the big bad Vancouver Whalers, I would put their odds at lifting the Four Star Cup much higher than one might expect.

After Vancouver, assuming no other upsets were to occur, it would pit the 5 seed vs the 1 seed, the Quebec City Citadelles. The big bad of the league looking for their third straight cup win might have a little trouble with the scrappy fish from Thunder Bay. The Walleye currently boast a 2-1-0 record over QCC this season, with 3 more meetings to go. The record could only swing as bad as 2-4 to finish out the year against the reigning champs, but I think Thunder Bay is going to put up more of a fight than that. Whereas just 12 other games have gone against Quebec City, Thunder Bay has a chance to prove that the winners of the Four Star Cup isn't as forgone a conclusion as some may think.

If Thunder Bay manages to shock the SMJHL by making two playoff upsets, they would be left with either Newfoundland or Kelowna as the last team in the North. This very well may be where the Cinderella run strikes midnight as both teams currently have a positive record against the Walleye, similar to Vancouver's record. The Walleye have notched a win against both teams and do still have 2 more meetings with both of them, enough time to improve their record a little bit and use said time to find weaknesses to exploit.

With the North taken care of, who could Thunder Bay expect to face in the finals from the South if everything comes up Walleye? Well, Ottawa and Maine seem to be the favorites for landing the 1 seed, with each of them boasting 30ish wins with 48 games played (4 less games played than Carolina who also sits at 30 wins, which puts them in line for a solid 3rd seed finish). If either of these teams made the finals against Thunder Bay, it could really be anyone's cup to take. Thunder Bay has had 2 matches against Ottawa this season, with only 1 more game to be played. The Walleye are currently 1-0-1 against the Southern Conference Canadian team, with the one win being a 6-3 W back on November 9, 2047. With Maine, the vibe changes. The Walleye are currently 1-2-0 against the Timber with no more games left to play against them. While the regular season series against them has too few games to give a reliable prediction, it will be a hard-fought series no matter which way you slice it.

So, it appeares that the Thunder Bay Walleye have their work cut out for them if they wanna make more than a simple splash in the playoffs. With one more week to go and several games against some of the best teams in the league still left to be played, the Walleye are looking to build some momentum that can be carried on into the playoffs, and look to really shake things up in the SMJHL.

visceralpotamus · 03-07-2025, 05:45 PM

FISH RISE UP
#savewhales

Beavie · 03-07-2025, 06:54 PM

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Walleye in the next couple seasons. You guys have a couple graduating players, but if you have enough well earning rookies this class, and draft right, it will be fun to see if you guys can take that next step out of the middle of the pack. If the playoff matches are as I see now, with you vs Vancouver, it will remind me a bit of us vs San Diego last year, two teams who are hoping to be on the rise, facing off. May you guys not need to blow it up. Nice write-up.

TipToasty · 03-07-2025, 08:34 PM

No easy path but we can pull it off. Good write up!

Troy_McClure03 · 03-08-2025, 09:07 PM

Let's go Walleye!!!!

***HabsFanFromOntario*** · 03-09-2025, 11:24 PM

+5 tpe, approved

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