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Sopath · 12-11-2021, 09:26 PM

State of the Pack Wolfpack

For the third straight season New England has been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs after a rather strong season. In large part it's because New England is almost doomed to run into Hamilton or Buffalo in the first round now. These two teams are power houses in the SHL and both have won championships in the past few seasons. The frustration among fans might be aimed at the team or management, but they should be looking to the external factors that hit this team.

New England has had the misfortune of having to play in the North East division since S60, which is home to both of said powerhouses, right as New England started to find their footing after spending much of the late 50's in the basement. It's bad timing and with the recent news of captain Guðmundur Kristjánsson testing Free Agency, and every forward but Bas O'Bigbers not under contract for the next season, and an interim GM in place who will make executive decisions for the draft, fans are uncertain of New England's future.

The Plan of The Past Wolfpack

This isn't the reality New England fans wanted. It's not the reality New England fans deserve, but this did not come from negligent management or lack of care. The New England Wolfpack as an organization have been trying to build something here for nearly a decade and unfortunately small errors, unexpected occurrences, and environmental factors have put the team in this situation. In S53 New England led the league in points with a core that included star player Ola Wagstrom, Eko Van otter, and Slap McShotty. Within two years factors led to the departure of both Wagstrom and Otter. As a result New England in entered into an era of poor play and disappointment.

Kenvald came in with the mindset of building the team for the future. Kenvald had a patient approach that involved the accumulation of draft picks and developing talent internally. There were misses that hurt. Grandmaster Funk (5th overall in S56) and Brennan Huff (9th overall S57) being the big ones. But there were many more hits. Alexander Oscarsson (8th overall S55), Calvin Hobbes (4th overall S56), Teylora Petrov (14th overall S56), Jonathan Granstrom (1st overall S57), Bas O'Bigbers (16th overall S57), Kaapo Kampaninen (27th overall S57) and Johnny Tsunami (17th overall in S58). The development strategy of Kenvald was overall working and things were looking up.

Unexpected Encounters Wolfpack

Frans Eller, the franchise goalie of the future, retired suddenly but with cause. Everyone understood but New England never really found another equal replacement to this loss. Then Alexander Oscarsson and Teylora Petrov both wanted moves away from New England for personal reasons. No hard feelings but it was two big pieces of the future gone. Then to mitigate the issues, team management recognized that there were no replacement prospects for such players and then moves had to be made for veterans. Moves like trading Kaapo Kampainen, and assets, for veteran Finn Rhys from Edmonton. And then as part of the three way trade for Teylora Petrov, the team acquired veteran Kaspars Claude from Calgary.

In these mitigation efforts the team got much more expensive and older. Suddenly a plan for being good later was having to be moved up sooner, but questions began to arise if the prospects would be good enough in time to be there for when the veterans were still some of the best players in the league. While these were big questions, the on ice performance of the team in that moment was strong. But outside factors had also begun to set it. New England now found themselves in the North East division with Hamilton and Buffalo. With changes to the playoff format, it certainly guaranteed that if New England wasn't a wild card, they'd face Buffalo or Hamilton in the playoffs. And if I may break emersion for a second, then regression had a dramatic change where it was moved up a season. This change placed immense pressure on the players.

Where the hell are we now? Wolfpack

We've had three very unsatisfying ends to our season in a row. Lost in 5 to Buffalo in S60, swept by Buffalo in S61, and lost in 6 to Hamilton in S62. It's not what anyone wants but it's what you come to expect when you play in a division with two buzz saws in it. This would be fine if we were still the mainly young team we once were, a team that was building for the mid to late 60s. But there were less prospects now and many of the core players were getting hit hard by age. With regression coming sooner, players in New England must really be wondering if they want to spend their last developing seasons on a team that is likely to get worse.

There is just one forward under contract for next season, Bas O'Bigbers, which isn't necessarily abnormal. Many teams have large chunks of players up for free agency every year with the league expectation being that few if any of those go to free agency. What the league must be wondering is if that is the situation here? Are we expecting most of the players to resign with the Wolfpack? New England's GM situation is an enigma. New England still has a Co for right now but the future direction of the team is completely uncertain and it is indefinite for how long this will last. We already know of one player leaving in free agency, and it's a complete mystery what the other players are thinking of doing.

What comes next? Wolfpack

I think New England is going to retain players like Slap McShotty, Ethan Price, and Adrian Ayers. It's far from certain they stay. If I were putting a probability on it I'd speculate that each is only likely and far from certain to stay. These players all seem to just be very attached to the team but they might be looking to do something else at this point in their careers. I think the team has a pretty good chance at keeping Jonathan Granstrom, Calvin Hobbes, and Jonathan Tsunami. But in the case of all three, they will have sooner regressions than originally expected. If Tsunami, the youngest, signs a three year contract for example, he will regress after the last year of that deal. Calvin Hobbes, the oldest, will regress at the conclusion of their first year in a three year deal. You can start to see how these pressures create very problematic consequences here.

The reality is that all potential free agents are facing much more severe regression than expected and they'll have to wonder if they really want to spend their last developing, or prime years, playing on a team that is certainly about to take a step back. I don't think there is an easy answer to this question. I don't know who the future GM of New England is but there is a lot of questions about the existing team that will need to be answered immediately.

The Important Point Wolfpack

The takeaway from this is that we didn't get here because of misguidance or some kind of negligence. We got here because while building in good faith there were a series of unfortunate events that placed the team in a hard environment. The players leaving and retiring was one thing. Getting placed in a division with two of the biggest current dynasties was really tough. But the regression issue really might have been the thing that made this so unpredictable. New England tried really hard to make this work. And maybe New England still can make this work. But where we stand now, New England is likely to take a step back. That's hockey. Sometimes things just don't work out. It's no one's fault and everyone tried their best. The Kenvald era is done and we'll see what the next GM has in store, but the clock is ticking here. Players are thinking about their futures. This might be the last chance a lot players get to make a big move before they are in the back 9 of their career or before they are no longer a star. But if New England gets raided in the off season just know that these players aren't leaving for a lack of love for The Wolfpack.

Word count: 1491

***HabsFanFromOntario*** · 12-11-2021, 09:29 PM

Great read and I love the emphasis that it's not because of a lack of effort. People often just look for results and not see the effort behind GMing

***bluesfan55*** · 12-12-2021, 12:10 AM

:simon:

ty to @High Stick King @EvilAllBran and @Ragnar for the sigs

visceralpotamus · 12-12-2021, 03:42 AM

The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again

*Carpy48* · 12-12-2021, 04:09 AM

I see so many similarities between NEW and TOR here, it's scary. Sorry that you have to be in our division now, but at least everyone on NEW can feel now how we on TOR have felt since the switch of FHM. You're not alone is all I can say.

Sopath · 12-12-2021, 04:33 AM

12-12-2021, 04:09 AMCarpy48 Wrote: I see so many similarities between NEW and TOR here, it's scary. Sorry that you have to be in our division now, but at least everyone on NEW can feel now how we on TOR have felt since the switch of FHM. You're not alone is all I can say.

Yeah it's a shit thing to happen and it hurts. But it feels like succeeding in this environment is going to involve luck and skill.

*Carpy48* · 12-12-2021, 04:41 AM

12-12-2021, 04:33 AMSopath Wrote:
12-12-2021, 04:09 AMCarpy48 Wrote: I see so many similarities between NEW and TOR here, it's scary. Sorry that you have to be in our division now, but at least everyone on NEW can feel now how we on TOR have felt since the switch of FHM. You're not alone is all I can say.

Yeah it's a shit thing to happen and it hurts. But it feels like succeeding in this environment is going to involve luck and skill.

I have my very own opinion here and that involves time too. If you're up against GMs that have hundreds of more hours of FHM experience and you (as a team's GM) simply don't have the time to spend to learn the game, you don't really have a chance.

Sopath · 12-12-2021, 04:53 AM

12-12-2021, 03:42 AMvisceralpotamus Wrote: The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again

The Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills.

Sopath · 12-12-2021, 05:26 AM

12-12-2021, 04:41 AMCarpy48 Wrote:
12-12-2021, 04:33 AMSopath Wrote: Yeah it's a shit thing to happen and it hurts. But it feels like succeeding in this environment is going to involve luck and skill.

I have my very own opinion here and that involves time too. If you're up against GMs that have hundreds of more hours of FHM experience and you (as a team's GM) simply don't have the time to spend to learn the game, you don't really have a chance.

To an extent I agree. But there are other changes to roster rules that I think could help here. Ultimately though people want to play for winning teams and people don't want to be on losing teams. These factors really exaggerate parity issues.

***luke*** · 12-12-2021, 12:39 PM

they rose?

***WannabeFinn*** · 12-12-2021, 01:57 PM

12-12-2021, 12:39 PMluketd Wrote: they rose?

awooooooooo

**bbjygm** · 12-12-2021, 02:29 PM

12-11-2021, 09:26 PMSopath Wrote: I think New England is going to retain players like Slap McShotty, Ethan Price, and Adrian Ayers. It's far from certain they stay. If I were putting a probability on it I'd speculate that each is only likely and far from certain to stay. These players all seem to just be very attached to the team but they might be looking to do something else at this point in their careers.

Slap is a team player, he hasn't taken NTCs in his contracts specifically because if the team needs to change he wouldn't be an obstacle. Whether the new GM wants to make better use of his cap space or wants to retain players even in regression, Slap is on board. But I do agree the new GM has a lot of thinking to do and a short time to commit to a plan with all the expiring contracts.

***boom*** · 12-13-2021, 01:50 PM

This is a very candid and well-written piece.

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